APPLICATION OF CELL PHONE STATISTICS FOR ESTIMATING STRANDED PEOPLE BEHAVIOR AFTER SEVERE EARTHQUAKE IN TOKYO

Abstract. In this paper, we present a walking home simulation as anticipated after a large earthquake, and analyze people’s behaviors, walking and stopping, including the crowding of facilities by those unable to walk all the way home. For creating the necessary data for this simulation, we construct a method to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of people with detailed individual information such as sex-age classification, and home location, by assembling population distribution data (Mobile Spatial Statistics and Person Trip survey data). The walking home simulation results verified significant variations in the crowding of facilities for stranded people due to differences in the day of the week and the time of the earthquake. Locations in Tokyo with insufficient numbers of facilities for stranded people were identified and some spatiotemporal characteristics of crowding, such as changes in crowding with time elapsed since the earthquake, were described.