DETERMINATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL TRANSMISSION PATTERNS OF DENGUE USING INDIVIDUAL PATIENT DYNAMICS: A CASE STUDY OF NCT DELHI

Abstract. Understanding the spatio-temporal transmission patterns of infectious disease is crucial for effective policymaking and containment strategies. Traditional approaches to study disease transmission often overlook localized patterns due to reliance on aggregate data and broad geographical scales. In contrast, this study focuses on individual patient data, allowing for a more granular analysis. By integrating patient records and hospital trip data, this study provides a comprehensive visualisation of the transmission process. This study aims to determine spatio-temporal patterns of dengue by utilizing individual patient data and their hospital trips to analyse dengue transmission in NCT Delhi during 2015–2022. Geospatial techniques have been employed to identify key mobility patterns associated with dengue transmission. Here Dengue Disease Monitoring (DDM) framework has been used to understand the spread of dengue through patient mobility in NCT Delhi. The study provides information regarding spatio-temporal dynamics of transmission so that effective resource allocation may be provided in order to implement targeted interventions in high-risk areas. It has been found that the incidence is very high in the central region of NCT Delhi. About 46.6% have been reported to nearby hospitals designated to dengue. On an average, it has been observed that patients tend to prefer travelling 7.5 km for treatment of dengue. Overall during 2015–2022, more frequent clusters have been formed in New Delhi District. Based on this study the movement of patients have a significant effect on dengue transmission. It is suggested to improve healthcare in vulnerable regions by offering specialized dengue treatment and increasing the number of designated hospitals specifically for dengue cases. The findings will help in formulating evidence-based policies to limit the spread of dengue, thus improving public health outcomes and reducing the burden of the dengue on affected communities.