MODELING LAND DEFORMATIONS IN MOUNTAINS BY COMBINING TIME-SERIES L-BAND SAR IMAGES AND SPATIOTEMPORAL STATISTICAL MODELS

Abstract. Predicting land deformations using remote-sensing technology is extremely challenging because the simulation models that are involved have many parameters, including geological features, that must be calibrated against areas of interest, and no universal model is available. Instead, this paper proposes a method for modeling land deformations with time-series L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images and spatiotemporal statistical models for prediction. First, time-series SAR analysis generates temporal land deformation. Then, water-related products are obtained from the Today’ Earth system of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. The three-day consecutive maximum values are calculated and then interpolated spatially. Finally, a descriptive or dynamic spatiotemporal statistical model is applied. The low-rank Gaussian process model, a descriptive model, is found to be highly accurate for explaining land deformations, even for actual slid areas, as long as the areas of analysis are limited, e.g., 150 m × 50 m. It is concluded that the proposed method is effective for predicting land deformations spatially and temporally and so can be used to identify possible landslide locations.