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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ISPRS-Annals</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ISPRS-Annals</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2194-9050</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/isprs-annals-X-4-W8-2025-675-2026</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Modeling and Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in Shahrekord (1990–2030) Using a Comparative CA-Markov and LCM Models</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sarhadi</surname>
<given-names>Faraz</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Amini</surname>
<given-names>Hamed Hossein</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7452-2678</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Surveying and Geoinformatics Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>X-4/W8-2025</volume>
<fpage>675</fpage>
<lpage>682</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Faraz Sarhadi</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/X-4-W8-2025/675/2026/isprs-annals-X-4-W8-2025-675-2026.html">This article is available from https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/X-4-W8-2025/675/2026/isprs-annals-X-4-W8-2025-675-2026.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/X-4-W8-2025/675/2026/isprs-annals-X-4-W8-2025-675-2026.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/X-4-W8-2025/675/2026/isprs-annals-X-4-W8-2025-675-2026.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Accurate prediction of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change is essential for sustainable urban and environmental planning. This study analyzes and models multi-decadal LULC dynamics in Shahrekord, Iran, using Landsat Surface Reflectance images for 1990, 2000, 2009, 2020, and 2024. Four classes were identified: Built-up/Barren (UB), Agriculture (AG), Water (WT), and Vegetation/Orchards (VG). LULC maps were produced using the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) method in ArcGIS, based on pre-processed data from Google Earth Engine (GEE).Two predictive approaches were compared in TerrSet: Cellular Automata&amp;ndash;Markov (CA-Markov) and Land Change Modeler (LCM) with a multilayer perceptron (MLP). Model performance was evaluated using hindcasts for 2020 and 2024, applying Overall Accuracy (OA), Kappa, and Pontius metrics. The CA-Markov model achieved higher accuracy and was therefore selected to predict LULC for 2030.Between 1990 and 2024, the UB class remained dominant, while AG increased in certain periods; WT and VG showed minor fluctuations. The findings confirm that neighborhood-based transitions drive most changes, enabling reliable short-term projections. The main limitations are the merged UB class and irregular time intervals. Recommendations for class refinement and temporal standardization are provided to improve future modeling and reproducibility.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="8"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
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