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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ISPRS-Annals</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ISPRS-Annals</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2194-9050</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/isprs-annals-XI-4-2026-275-2026</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Causal Discovery and Deep Learning-based Interaction-aware Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Qiu</surname>
<given-names>Wen-Xin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9185-712X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fuse</surname>
<given-names>Takashi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Dept. of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8656 Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>XI-4-2026</volume>
<fpage>275</fpage>
<lpage>282</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Wen-Xin Qiu</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/XI-4-2026/275/2026/isprs-annals-XI-4-2026-275-2026.html">This article is available from https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/XI-4-2026/275/2026/isprs-annals-XI-4-2026-275-2026.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/XI-4-2026/275/2026/isprs-annals-XI-4-2026-275-2026.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/XI-4-2026/275/2026/isprs-annals-XI-4-2026-275-2026.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Understanding pedestrian behaviors is the foundation of simulation for space planning. However, conventional behavior modeling methods are insufficient for learning detailed interactions, and deep learning methods often lack interpretability. This study aims to develop a pedestrian trajectory modeling approach based on discovering causal relationships among pedestrians. The proposed method consists of two parts: analyzing causal relationships among pedestrians using statistical causal discovery methods and predicting trajectories using attention-based deep learning methods. The first part employs a semi-parametric method to identify the causal relationships underlying observed pedestrian behavior and construct a spatial-temporal graph based on these causal relationships. The second part primarily uses the graph attention network to learn interactions among pedestrians. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves a good balance between prediction accuracy and interpretability, while also identifying limitations, including at low-density scenes and due to causal model assumptions.</p>
</abstract>
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