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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ISPRS-Annals</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ISPRS-Annals</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">ISPRS Ann. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2194-9050</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/isprs-annals-XII-4-W2-2026-211-2026</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Future Building Energy Atlas of Sofia City</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vitanova</surname>
<given-names>Lidia Lazarova</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1789-3901</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pavlov</surname>
<given-names>Darin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Trendafilova</surname>
<given-names>Tereza K.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Karube</surname>
<given-names>Ryota</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1142-3768</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nakamura</surname>
<given-names>Koki</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zabuska</surname>
<given-names>Agata</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Doan</surname>
<given-names>Quang-Van</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2794-5309</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Petrova-Antonova</surname>
<given-names>Dessislava</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9920-8877</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ilieva</surname>
<given-names>Sylvia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>GATE Institute, Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Sofia, Bulgaria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Graduate School of Science and Technology, University of Tsukuba, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>XII-4/W2-2026</volume>
<fpage>211</fpage>
<lpage>218</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Lidia Lazarova Vitanova et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/XII-4-W2-2026/211/2026/isprs-annals-XII-4-W2-2026-211-2026.html">This article is available from https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/XII-4-W2-2026/211/2026/isprs-annals-XII-4-W2-2026-211-2026.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/XII-4-W2-2026/211/2026/isprs-annals-XII-4-W2-2026-211-2026.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://isprs-annals.copernicus.org/articles/XII-4-W2-2026/211/2026/isprs-annals-XII-4-W2-2026-211-2026.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>This study develops a Future Building Energy Atlas (FBEA) for Sofia, Bulgaria, integrating land-use change modelling and spatial energy-demand assessment within a GIS framework. Future land-use patterns toward 2074 are simulated using a hybrid Artificial Neural Network&amp;ndash;Cellular Automata (CA-ANN) model, while building energy consumption is estimated using cadastral data, gross floor area calculations, and energy coefficients derived from more than 2,500 certified buildings across ten functional categories under the medium-energy consumption. Future energy demand is projected based on historical trends observed between 2000 and 2020, during which building energy consumption increased steadily. The results indicate continued urban expansion primarily at the expense of cropland and forest areas. Cropland is projected to decline from 36.4 km&amp;sup2; to 26.5 km&amp;sup2;, while forest areas are projected to decrease from 16.7 km&amp;sup2; to 14.4 km&amp;sup2; by 2074. At the same time, building energy demand increases significantly. The daily mean maximum energy consumption is projected to increase from 35.2 W/m&amp;sup2; in 2024 to approximately 115 W/m&amp;sup2; by 2074. These results highlight the strong relationship between urban growth, land-use transformation, and increasing energy demand in the building sector.</p>
</abstract>
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