UNCERTAINTY HANDLING IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT USING HIERARCHICAL ROUGH SET GRANULATION

Abstract. Uncertainty is one of the main concerns in geospatial data analysis. It affects different parts of decision making based on such data. In this paper, a new methodology to handle uncertainty for multi-criteria decision making problems is proposed. It integrates hierarchical rough granulation and rule extraction to build an accurate classifier. Rough granulation provides information granules with a detailed quality assessment. The granules are the basis for the rule extraction in granular computing, which applies quality measures on the rules to obtain the best set of classification rules. The proposed methodology is applied to assess seismic physical vulnerability in Tehran. Six effective criteria reflecting building age, height and material, topographic slope and earthquake intensity of the North Tehran fault have been tested. The criteria were discretized and the data set was granulated using a hierarchical rough method, where the best describing granules are determined according to the quality measures. The granules are fed into the granular computing algorithm resulting in classification rules that provide the highest prediction quality. This detailed uncertainty management resulted in 84% accuracy in prediction in a training data set. It was applied next to the whole study area to obtain the seismic vulnerability map of Tehran. A sensitivity analysis proved that earthquake intensity is the most effective criterion in the seismic vulnerability assessment of Tehran.