INFLUENCE OF WORD-OF-MOUTH COMMUNICATION ON LARGE-SCALE EVACUATION AFTER A SEVERE EARTHQUAKE

Abstract. Physical disaster in a serious earthquake (fires and street blockages), word-of-mouth communication (WOMC) among evacuees, and evacuation behaviors are modeled, and an evacuation behavior simulation is carried out. The influences of WOMC regarding the information about disaster and the locations of evacuation areas on a large-scale evacuation are observed. The simulation results demonstrate some new findings and highlight the importance of providing guides in tourist areas, where there are many people who have limited local geographical information. It is also shown that once false information has appeared in the process of WOMC among the wanderers, especially in locations with a high density of wanderers, the false information will spread quickly among the evacuees by WOMC and can negatively influence a large-scale evacuation.