FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY MODELLING USING GEOSPATIAL-BASED MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING IN LARGE SCALE AREAS

Abstract. Flood is one of the most hazardous natural disasters that cause damages and poses a major threat to human lives and infrastructures worldwide, and its prevention is almost unfeasible. Thus, the detection of flood susceptible areas can be a key to lessen the amount of destruction and mortality. This study aims to implement a framework to identify flood potential zones in an ungauged large-scale area with frequent flood events in recent years. We used two Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approaches combined with geospatial analysis, and remote sensing observations for this susceptibility analysis. Nine geomorphological and environmental factors that have an impact on flood behaviour were selected and used for susceptibility modelling. At first, the criteria’s weights were estimated using two MCDM approaches and based on experts’ knowledge. The resultant weights revealed that Flow Accumulation, Topographic wetness index, and Distance to River were the most influential flood susceptibility criteria. After calculating these weights, the criteria’s layers were aggregated through geospatial analysis, which resulted in generating flood susceptibility map. The area under the curve (AUC) and statistical measures such as the Kappa index were used to evaluate the proposed method's efficiency. The validation results illustrate that hybrid FAHP, with AUC= 96.68 and Kappa = 81.36 performed more efficiently than standard AHP, with AUC= 94.53 and Kappa=76.35. Overlaying these maps with the historical flood inventory dataset revealed that 86.43% of flooded areas were categorized as “high” and “very high”. Therefore, the flood susceptibility maps generated through the proposed approach can help the decision-makers and managers allocate the mitigation equipment and facility in data-scarce and ungauged large-scale areas.