Geo-Spatial Modelling of Groundwater Potential Zones Using MIF Method and ROC Validation in Semi-Arid Pune Region

Abstract. Groundwater is vital for agricultural, domestic, and industrial use, particularly in semi-arid regions like Pune district, Maharashtra, India. Increasing water demand and irregular rainfall patterns resulting in water stress areas have made the identification of groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) essential for sustainable resource planning. This study aims to use the Multi-Influencing Factor (MIF) technique integrated with Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to delineate GWPZs, and statistical validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Eleven thematic layers- lithology, geomorphology, slope, elevation, rainfall, land use/land cover (LULC), soil, drainage density, lineament density, topographic wetness index (TWI), and static water level- were selected based on their influence on groundwater occurrence. Each thematic layer was assigned ranks and weights reflecting their hydrogeological relevance. These were integrated using a weighted overlay to derive the Groundwater Potential Zones, categorised into Excellent, Good, Moderate and Low. Model validation using yield data showed a good correlation, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of 0.709, confirming the predictive accuracy. The study found that excellent potential zones are primarily located in the western parts of the district. The majority of areas fall under the good and moderate category. The MIF method and GIS and ROC validation provide a practical and reproducible framework for evaluating groundwater potential. The findings are a valuable tool for planners, facilitating sustainable groundwater planning and management in the Pune district and similar regions.