Geospatial Deconstruction and Predictive Modeling of Urban Morphogenesis in India’s Tier-2 Cities: A Multi-Decadal Remote Sensing-Based Entropy Analysis

Abstract. A geospatial analysis of urban morphogenesis in India’s Tier-2 cities is essential as these cities face rapid expansion driven by population growth, infrastructure development, and economic pressures. This study investigates the spatial patterns, growth processes, and projected urban trajectories in three representative Tier-2 cities—Nashik, Gandhinagar, and Thiruvananthapuram using a multi-decadal analytical framework. The research employs satellite-based Land Use Land Cover (LULC) data from 1995 to 2025, supervised image classification, Shannon’s Entropy Index, and Built-up Density metrics to assess spatio-temporal urban expansion. Urban growth simulations for 2035 are conducted using the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS, supported by Artificial Neural Networks and Cellular Automata modeling. A cardinal zoning-based directional analysis reveals significant spatial variation across the three cities. Nashik exhibits dispersed urban sprawl, driven by the expansion of industrial corridors and the Samruddhi Expressway. Gandhinagar demonstrates relatively stable and concentric growth, influenced by its planned urban design and proximity to Ahmedabad. Thiruvananthapuram shows compact, high-density growth constrained by coastal and topographic barriers. Projected LULC scenarios for 2035 indicate substantial built-up expansion, particularly in Nashik, accompanied by the loss of green spaces and vegetation. The findings emphasize the urgent need for region-specific, data-driven planning to address the risks of unregulated sprawl, ecological loss, and inefficient land use. This study offers a geospatially integrated, comparative framework to support urban planners and policymakers in shaping sustainable, balanced growth trajectories for India’s rapidly urbanizing Tier-2 cities. The research underlines the importance of integrating ecological preservation within future urban development strategies.