Dengue Observatory: An Environment- and Weather-Driven Epidemiological Modelling Framework for Iloilo City

Abstract. Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral infection, remains a significant public health threat in the Philippines. Iloilo City has been particularly vulnerable to recurring outbreaks due to its geographic and climatic conditions. This study presents a localized agent-based epidemiological modelling framework, the Dengue Observatory, which integrates real-time weather data and other environmental factors to simulate and visualize Dengue transmission dynamics in Iloilo City. The model incorporates weather variables and virulence factors to identify potential outbreak periods. Utilizing epidemiological records from the local government and meteorological data from 2020 to early 2025, the model highlights high -incidence zones across the city. It builds upon a more realistic SEIR model and explores refined parameterization strategies. Findings indicate a strong correlation between Dengue spikes and prolonged periods of rainfall and high humidity. Water-adjacent and low-lying areas consistently emerge as transmission hotspots. However, limitations include the difficulty in quantifying virulence levels and accurately mapping mosquito populat ion densities. Despite these challenges, the model offers valuable insights that can support more targeted and data-driven public health interventions based on real-time environmental and spatial data.